Where we are

We sit at an interesting moment in history. Regardless of what you think of Trump or his motives, he is destroying the world order as we know it. I find this exciting in the extreme. Despite his undeniable support from about a third of Americans, what he is attempting is closer to a revolution, or perhaps more accurately a coup, than a normal administration. It seems that what he is doing is completely beyond the understanding or desire of his supporters, which is why the cult of personality is fundamental to his regime. Now I'm no fan of the US Empire and even less so of late stage Capitalism, but I've also studied history enough to know that what coalesces in its aftermath is by no means going to be better for humanity. 

For decades I've expected the US to swing towards a more forthright authoritarian form of government, and this has been happening unabated regardless of who occupies the White House. Clinton massively expanded the police state and prison industrial complex. Bush the Younger waged wars in Asia with reckless abandon. Obama unleashed the drones and ordered the first extrajudicial killing of a US citizen that we know of for sure. Biden backed Israel's monumental crime in Gaza and worked to stifle free speech in the US to defend it. Trump is not an anomaly except that he doesn't try to keep the facade of normalcy to sugar coat his actions. 

During his first term Trump only had two constituencies that had clear demands he had to act on. The first were the evangelicals, for whom he ended Roe V. Wade and the other were the Capitalists who wanted taxes and regulations cut. Those things were done and the rest of his presidency was just sound and fury signifying nothing. This time around he has a new source of support that clearly wants something for themselves- the Technogarchs. These mighty modern age titans of Capital have achieved a level of market dominance not seen since the Gilded Age and there seems to be no Roosevelt to bring them to heel on the horizon. The Great Lockdowns solidified their control and they now rake in so much money that two of them have even decided to try and colonize space with their companies because they have so much excess Capital to splurge. So what do these men want and why have they decided to throw their lot in with Trump? 

My assumption is that they just see Trump as a means to an end. The economy is rapidly shifting into a strange new era in which consent is manufactured by algorithmic social media, which the Technogarchs control completely. The only rival outside of their power was TikTok, which they have used the power of the state to enfeeble. Trump has done a lot to weaken the courts and this surely benefits them. The gargantuan trade war that Trump has kicked off over the past month is a bit trickier to explain. Many of the well established Capitalists are horrified at this, but surprisingly not the Technogarchs it seems. Apple got their exemption and I'm sure Tesla will as well. How Amazon can function without cheap goods from China is hard to fathom, but they haven't raised much of a fuss about what is happening. At any rate, these so called Techno-Feudalists are absolutely working hand in hand with Trump on this project and so is much of Wall Street. So the question becomes, what are they all aiming at? 

A book written a few years ago called 'Trade wars are class wars' helps explain this to some extent. I'll allow the authors to speak for themselves: 

"Regular people everywhere are being deprived of purchasing power — and tricked by chauvinists and opportunists into believing that their interests are fundamentally at odds. A global conflict between economic classes within countries is being misinterpreted as a series of conflicts between countries with competing interests." 

This gets to a crucial element of this new alliance between the Technogarchs and the Don. 

The Covid era undoubtedly helped the Technogarchs in many ways, but it also saw a strange moment in labor relations unfold. The drastic reduction in immigration and the opportunity for people to benefit from a much tighter labor market saw the working class actually make some gains. The American economy bounced back much faster than the rest of the world and this has led to wages actually rising; although it is worth pointing out that inflation has kept this from making workers actually more secure. Higher wages and empowered workers are things that all Capitalists from all eras are obviously against. Even so, the stock market was doing well, the dollar was strong and the Technogarchs prospered ever more. The creative destruction of Capitalism abhors stagnation, however, and anyone at the commanding heights of the game always needs to think several moves ahead to stay in that position. 

Now I'm getting into outright speculation here. No reason to pretend I can see the future, just taking a wild guess at where this is headed. I think the goal is destroy the Federal Government as we know it and instead have fiefdoms dominated by corporations. Amazon might take over the Postal Service. SpaceX may seize NASA. The defense industry already has captured the Pentagon, so no need for change there. Labor in the US will be subdued by a combination of huge trade barriers for anyone not connected to Trump and radical change in immigration patterns. I suspect there will be some move against the Federal Reserve, although I can't begin to wrap my head around what they plan to do with the goose that lays the golden egg, but they are surely up to something. Radically reducing the social safety net started during the New Deal will make workers even more vulnerable and a housing market that is very soon to be inaccessible for huge swathes of Americans will ensure that many of the American working class become ever more dependent on their corporate overlords. 

I also anticipate a serious attempt to start a major conflict with China. They need a big distraction to pull this all off without triggering a class war. As we have seen in the response to Gaza, the Muslim world just doesn't serve the purpose it once did. China is in a very vulnerable position as the global economy starts to wobble. Militarily they are still at least a decade out of being able to go toe to toe with the US and its allies. The one part of the equation that just makes no sense to me is the boisterous antagonism against America's allies. Why threaten Canada and Denmark? What is this madness about pulling out of NATO? That is a piece of the puzzle I just don't understand. I'm confident when it plays out a bit more we will start to see what the strategy is there. Perhaps just a strategic scare to make them all up their defense spending and make them realize how they can't take American military support for granted so when the shit really hits the fan our allies know they will need to pull their weight more than they have. 

It will be a fascinating few years to see how the pieces start to fall into place. I've never been part of the 'Trump is an idiot' crowd. The guy hijacked the Republican party and has taken it down a radically different path in just under a decade. This is not to say he isn't going to completely fail in his grand designs, only that I think he does indeed have such plans that he is working intensely to realize and the Technogarchs are instrumental in all of this. 

   

Better the Devil you know...

For all her multitude of sins and truly unprecedented sanctimonious lies, the Pax Americana was a period, by and large, of global calm and economic growth... despite the occasional NATO led gang rape of a country here and there. When it is gone as the 800lbs gorilla in the room, resource wars will almost certainly start immediately between almost all nations. The global order that was established during the post-WWII dust settling and then reinforced during the long decades of the Cold War is hardly ideal, but it is at the very least defensible as being better than the late colonial period that preceded it. 

Of course, America also made the period when Capitalism basically took nature out back and shot it in the head repeatedly possible, which is obviously the worst thing humans have ever done by a long shot. The free market definitely delivers the goods, that can't be challenged at this point, but at what cost? Short term, the costs seem acceptable to everyone but the working class I suspect; and even a good chunk of them can probably be persuaded to sign on if drugs of some sort are made readily available and they can at least feel like their lives are better than those of their parents. The long term however, which is what we are finally getting into, the cost seems to rise exponentially. I think the saddest part to watch unfold is people sullenly accept that nature will die, we killed it, and we will continue to beat a dead horse for some years to come. 

This all makes for a strange time in human history. When we started cutting down all the trees and causing a mass extinction event on par with the previous ones. I'm pretty sure it wasn't done deliberately to murder all the other creatures and trees, but rather just to make our lives easier and to spread Empires. At this point however, we clearly know what we are doing and collectively don't care enough to stop; basically the mentality of an abusive alcoholic. I think that says more about the evolution of modern humans mentally than all other behavior. Hard for me to honestly even fathom how people can feel at all positive about human progress with that fact so indisputably omnipresent. All the great forests will be felled, the rivers damned, most species made extinct... probably in many of our lifetimes.  

Given this setting, it is fairly understandable why so many people are choosing to focus on the far more familiar drama of national and international politics. I sort of get the feeling at this point that virtual reality of some slightly more advanced form than what we got now with social media will come out just as the collapse really kicks into high gear and that civilization will collapse simply because everyone just dives into the alternate reality we have created rather than deal with the trainwreck. Whether you want to focus on racism in America, global pandemic, the triumphant return of fascism or just good old fashioned national rivalries... 2020 is a time for retro drama rather than actual reflection on the pickle we've gotten ourselves in as what is left of the forests and our social contract burns.  

The Great Virus of 2020

So this little virus that looks like the solar corona has taken the world by storm. I personally, as an historian, am basically loving this very retro era of quarantines and travel restrictions. Perhaps it's a bit cruel to take so much pleasure in a time that is causing so many such trouble, but I can't help it. We were already sprinting off the cliff of abject environmental collapse, so this unexpected pause seems hardly worth lamenting. The big surprise for me is how cohesive late Capitalism is when facing such an existential threat to the grand project of Globalization. I guess most are all in with this gambit and an unexpected curve ball from nature is hardly enough to concoct an alternative trajectory. The only part of the whole thing that I find at all disturbing is that this flashback to pre-vaccine life has caused conspiracy theory proponents to increase their number many times over. The war against reality has really kicked up a notch and all because people just don't seem to comprehend that science is complicated and far from infallible. I am starting to almost wish the world had stayed religious, just so those archaic con men could calm the excitable masses, channel their stupidity towards the imaginary God-head. Oh well, those days are gone and now people have the internet so an increasingly large segment of the world is heading towards the strange fan-fiction of the modern conspiracy theory; even the most complicated of which is still far easier to grasp than the slippery fish of reality.  

The real storm cloud on the horizon is the impending American election in November. BLM protests becoming the biggest mass movement in the US since the Great Awakening has of course triggered the dominant white masses big time on both sides of the political spectrum. Then add to all that Trump and his followers seemingly genuine belief that he is only hope for America and that the aforementioned protests are aiming to end white supremacy, all seems to point towards a confrontation. The old is dying and the new is not yet ready to be fully born it would seem. Unless he wins outright, which is completely feasible, there is no way I can imagine the Don going quietly into that good night; he will rage, rage against the dying of his might. If the Dems had been able to put up someone respectable, or at least not a vacuous career politician like Biden, I wouldn't be too worried, but they decided to go for the ignorant old white vote, which although demographically sound electoral thinking, I believe it is a very bad choice for this situation. Trump and his supporters have a clear narrative and the ferocity of hundreds of years of white supremacy, aka the status quo, on their side. Compared to the incoherent and blatantly hypocritical propaganda that the DNC is trying to push, Trump's message is shockingly clear and extremely deeply programmed into much of the country's psyche. The rest of the world still can't challenge the US militarily, so this election will have huge ramifications around the world, especially as the dollar has soared in these uncertain times. I'm just personally grateful that Trump isn't articulate, for if he was at all a competent orator America would probably be seeing goose-stepping in the streets. 

Our 8 billion strong experiment is entering into a galvanizing crucible. Will we make it or break it? Only time can answer such a question, so stay tuned.   

Perhaps

Perhaps it has always been this way. A thought like this can stop your thoughts like a rock going through a glass window. When I look at the insanity of the world in which we all live my first instinct is to consider it the curtain call on a truly glorious nightmare, but it could also have always been this way.

It occurs to me often that all that has really changed is that people now have the means to broadcast their perspective into the abyss, like Hitler’s radio waves into space. There is nothing holding many back anymore, no more reasons for rationality and its sidekick, plans. The raw fact that we have probably damaged the world so badly that it will cease to support us and that the social system we have erected is little more than an entertaining suicide pact must surely gnaw on the nerves of us all. Just as the atomic bomb surely psychologically altered all those who could fathom its existence in our world, so too does the doomed twilight in which we now live. Still I must suppose that it could have always been this way.

Surely the miracle of life and its startling brevity has always occupied the minds of us humans, at least when we weren’t preoccupied with dodging death for another day. I find myself wondering if perhaps we humans can’t actually care about the extinction of our species, or the end of what we confusingly categorize as civilization. It would be interesting to see what people would do if they were told having another 5 years of this modern world was possible, but after that all human life would cease; would it change anything? Has it always been this way?

The Fringe

When one is interested in humanity and makes an effort to learn things about it, you come across some pretty disparate chapters that seem hard to believe. One such crazy corner of history is Cambodia from 1975-1979, when the Khmer Rouge decided to take social engineering to new levels of insanity. Making a go of collectivization, liquidating class enemies and trying to demolish cultural traditions were the nuts and bolts of 20th Century Communist revolutions. In quite a few cases, this process went a bit off the rails and things degenerated into state sponsored bloodletting. Even so, what happened in Cambodia is singular. The Khmer Rouge probably had the least developed country to attempt Communism with, but regardless of this, the leaders threw caution to the wind and attempted to make reality conform to their wildest socialist fantasies.

As with all the horrid pieces of history, of which there are a great many, it seems most common to just shudder slightly within one's soul when hearing of it and then go get some ice cream so as to not give up all hope. As a student of history I for some reason like to stare into the abyss of human insanity, ostensibly in order to discover the reasons such things happen. A big part of our modern world seems to be predicated on the belief that we have somehow gotten better as a species, that we no longer have the same predilection for the ultra-violence. In my opinion, this is the metaphorical ice cream we feed ourselves in order to hide from the terrifying truth.

After gaining independence from France through essentially nagging and public shaming, King Sihanouk led his little kingdom into the Modern Era with panache and relentless demagoguery. He had many faults, but he did seem to love his country and its people a great deal, even if he didn't think they were ready to have a say in government. He vacillated between the West, the Communists and the non-aligned movement before eventually taking a fairly anti-US Imperialism stance as the war in Vietnam escalated and threatened to engulf Cambodia. Over time he became more and more autocratic as a nascent intelligentsia began to question his decisions, if not his overall leadership. Although still pretty damn popular with the common folk he was eventually deposed by some of his subordinates while abroad because he had managed to alienate most of the elites. The new rulers of the country immediately joined the American side of the Vietnam war and attempted to dislodge the North Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong forces that had essentially overrun the eastern provinces of the country. This didn't work because by this point the Vietnamese Communists had essentially embraced spartan levels of martial discipline, courage and skill. Once it became clear that they would never defeat the Vietnamese the government came to rely heavily on US B-52s to do the killing for them. This obviously also led to thousands of Cambodians dying as well, not to mention the majority of the countries elephants. Just as in Vietnam, this bombing campaign turned large segments of the population against the government in Phnom Penh. The deposed King Sihanouk had aligned himself with the  Communists because they were the only ones really challenging the new government that had betrayed him and also because his hosts in Beijing, where he had taken residence, probably pressured him to do so. His voice on the radio urging the people to join the Communist insurgency to crush the traitorous regime managed to turn a rag tag bunch of idealists who were little more than a Vietnamese proxy force into a large scale uprising with genuine popular support. It also gave the Khmer Rouge greater legitimacy in the eyes of many observers. After all, the man who was essentially seen as Cambodia incarnate was supporting them, he surely knows best.     

The war that followed was brutal and long. America did to Cambodia what they had to South Vietnam- made it dependent on copious amounts of US dollars and weapons, enabling their governments to become heinously corrupt to the point where victory was utterly impossible. When corruption has gotten to a level where generals in your army are selling weapons to the enemy instead of giving it to their own troops, defeat is only a matter of time. When the Khmer Rouge finally entered Phnom Penh on April 17th, 1975 a great many Cambodians were ready for a change in government and society, even if they were a bit fuzzy on the details of what sort of change that would be. At least the war would end, they reasoned. It couldn't possibly be any more corrupt or incompetent, they thought. How horribly wrong they were.
The Central Committee of the Cambodian Communist Party (CPK) was one of the weirdest, most deranged bunch of lunatics to ever wield power in the modern era. First of all, they didn't even admit that they ran the country for a long time, instead just calling themselves 'Angkar' and ruling the land through mysterious messages, the source of which was a closely guarded secret. They also thought modern medicine and education simply weren't necessary, cities ought to be abandoned and Vietnam could be militarily crushed with relative ease.
What one thinker called the 'tyranization of practice at the hands of theory' is a good way to describe how Democratic Kampuchea was governed. Pol Pot, Ieng Sary and a handful of others thought they would succeed where so many other revolutions had failed, not by going carefully and thoughtfully deducing lessons from the past, but instead going full tilt towards classless agrarian Communism based on autarky. The barbarity of what followed, even by the fucked up standards of the 20th Century, are hard to fathom. Rough estimates are that a quarter of the country died (somewhere in the realm of 1-2 million people) in the under 4 years the experiment was conducted.

The killing of the educated, the arming of indoctrinated children, more or less planned famine and even the devouring of its own revolutionary cadre was so staggering that it took years for the outside world to finally accept what had happened. If the Vietnamese hadn't put a stop to it, who knows how much longer it could have gone on. If we take North Korea as an example, potentially many years longer. Most of the West acknowledged the Khmer Rouge government in exile as the legitimate representative of Cambodia all through the 1980s, and they occupied Cambodia's seat at the UN with other exile movements based in Thailand. They weren't even ever really defeated, but eventually just allowed to be incorporated into the Cambodian military and government in the 90s, often not even having to move from the areas they had operated in. Pol Pot lived to the ripe old age of 72 in his quiet corner of Cambodia watching his grandchildren grow up. This is perhaps the most disturbing part, that those who caused so much suffering were themselves allowed to live out their lives.
A major reason for what took place in Cambodia was obviously external and hardly something for which the local population can be blamed. The Cold War and the American war next door were obviously direct antecedents. The Sino-Soviet split also played a major role in what happened, as China was so desperate to find a way to isolate Vietnam, then an ally of the USSR, that they were willing to tolerate almost any government in Cambodia as long as it was loyal to them. Having said all that, there is still a lingering question of how any people could allow themselves to be brutalized on such a monumental level and to then not demand the heads of those who had done it.
When it's a concentration camp or gulag, that is one thing, but damn near an entire society is hard to comprehend. In Bosnia or Rwanda, there were ethnic and religious tensions that made their genocides conceivable, but Cambodia is a different beast all together. When a very belatedly attempt to put some of the surviving members of the Khmer Rouge leaders on trial some years back they actually found it fairly difficult to convict them of genocide, because they had killed overwhelmingly Khmer people and did so without any consideration of race, religion or nationality. It would seem to me that what happened during those dark years was the result of pursuing an idea, one believed to be so intrinsically good, that it justifies any means to achieve it. Add to that the context, America pulling frantically out of South Vietnam as the NVA closes in on Saigon at the exact same time that Phnom Penh falls to the Khmer Rouge and we start to understand why the world didn't really think much about Cambodia during the next 4 years. Another factor worth considering is that Cambodia had been kicked around by stronger neighbors for centuries, and so was rather paranoid about other countries trying to take it over, which made much of the CPK propaganda easily digestible.
These days in Cambodia, the genocide is mostly for tourist consumption it seems. They don't teach about it in public schools so as to not incur the wrath of the government, which is headed by a former battalion commander of the Khmer Rouge who eventually defected to the North Vietnamese and turned on his former comrades. The people obviously still bear psychological scars from this period and trans-generational trauma seems very common. The country has a great many problems, but the people seem to me incredibly resilient. The smiles and the little acts of kindness I see every day gives me hope for this imperiled species we call humans.

The Triumph of Capital

I recently visited the grave of Karl Marx in Highgate Cemetary, which in a beautiful twist of fate, charges an entrance fee to see his tomb. While standing over his bones I was wondering what he would have thought of how the great amoral economic juggernaut has evolved. Say what you will of its impact on humanity and the environment, it has managed to sustain a staggering 7.5 billion humans. Considering our historical proclivity towards organized violence, as well as our susceptibility to famine and plague, that is one hell of an achievement. As much as we are ultra cool sentient modern beings, we are still basically just conceited animals, and as such, it is all really just a numbers game. How many of your own species can you spread over the surface of the Earth, that is the real measure of success. I used to despise Capitalism in my youth, dreaming fancifully of its cataclysmic downfall or overthrow. As I get older and see for myself how ubiquitous it has become, I no longer can harbor such absolutist convictions about it being 'evil' or destined to be brought down by the proletariat. Having said that, a bottom of the Ninth comeback by labor to take the means of production right before they all get made obsolete by machines... how cool would that be, right?

All the old Marxist criticisms are of course still completely true. Contradictions abound and monstrous crimes are committed daily in the pursuit of profit. It is a system that is built on the suffering of the masses and it exploits ruthlessly all those who are not lucky or cunning enough to scramble into one of the higher classes. Aside from its human costs, it also completely destroys or alters everything that stands in its way. Growth for growth's sake is the logic of a cancer cell, and that is precisely what Capitalism is all about. Within a relatively short period of time, it has managed to change weather patterns and in just the past 100 years alone obliterate well over half the worlds forests. It commodifies everything. If it is profitable and possible, then it shall be done. 

On the other side, however, how amazing it all is. The global GDP is an estimated $75 trillion and the mean life expectancy is over 70! Even having studied a fair amount of economics, I am still a bit confused about the whole concept of fiat currency and how it can be an accurate measure of economic output, but that is also part of the magic, under close inspection, none of it really makes objective sense, it just works somehow. Granted, every 20 years or so the whole thing wobbles and threatens to collapse, but then modern governments pretty much fulfill the only important task left to them and prop up the market before the whole shithouse goes up in flames. 
Marx wrote that- "Is that to say we are against Free Trade? No, we are for Free Trade, because by Free Trade all economical laws, with their most astounding contradictions, will act upon a larger scale, upon the territory of the whole earth; and because from the uniting of all these contradictions in a single group, where they will stand face to face, will result the struggle which will itself eventuate in the emancipation of the proletariat."
Well, it has come to pass. With very few exceptions, capital knows no real barriers in this world of ours. People may be stopped from crossing the Rio Grande or the Mediterranean, but money surely is not. The contradictions are indeed many. If you add to these essential incongruities the dizzying level of hypocrisy practiced by a still tenuously dominate West in terms of geopolitics, economics, environmentalism and a myriad of 'ideals', the whole thing becomes almost too insane to even fathom. Yet, somehow, someway, it all rumbles on with no real contender in sight, just critics. 
It is rather sad that Marx miscalculated by so many years, and that the communists failed so monumentally in their attempts to jump the gun. Of course, they never really got a chance to try their theories on a properly industrialized country, merely peripheral states that were far from being anything resembling developed capitalist economies. Regardless of this, the horrors that communism, as a government, inflicted upon the world have effectively removed it as a viable option. 

I'm sure the most difficult to grasp aspect of our time for old Karl would be that the rising star, the lynchpin, in this high noon of Capitalism is the Peoples Republic of China, which still espouses a Marxist doctrine and requires it to be studied by it's billion and a half people. Really don't know how anyone without a highly developed sense of humor can even deal with this world of ours.

New Player in History

Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is now, for all intents and purposes, King of Arabia. He is thus one of the richest people in the world, protector of the two holy cities of Islam and  de facto leader of the Sunnis. At only 32 years of age he is very young by the standards of our day to be in such a position (Kim Jong- Un of North Korean fame is 33). 

As you can see from his stone cold stare above, this guy isn't letting a little thing like his age getting in the way of being a monarch in the old mold. He has already unleashed war against their impoverished neighbors to the south in Yemen, which sends a clear message that he means to use some of the high tech weaponry the country has been buying up for decades. Of course, the humanitarian consequences of the two and half years of military intervention have been fairly horrific in terms of civilian casualties and hasn't really achieved much of anything substantial in military terms, but those are details to a true King. Recently, the embargo has led to large portions of Yemen being on the brink of starvation and to the largest outbreak of cholera (might be something else) in living memory. He also took the move of cutting off Qatar because it was seen as not following the Saudi/Sunni line in the region by doing things like being too friendly with Iran, sponsoring Al-Jazeera and in general having their own foreign policy.  

With so many of the worlds royals just being titular, its good to see someone looking to maintain the ancient tradition of hereditary authoritarianism. 

In my opinion the Saudi royal family is, taken as a whole, the most hypocritical bunch of reprobates that our era has produced. Working in tandem with a psychotically myopic US foreign policy they managed to do more damage to Islam than generations of Imperialism by Europeans and hundreds of years of rule by Turk managed to achieve. Places like Chechnya and Afghanistan have gone from being predominately Sufi, and thus fairly relaxed about religion, to centers of reactionary idiocy based on perhaps the shittiest religion on earth, Wahhabism. Having said all that, MBS has already let women drive and is allowing movie theatres to open up, so maybe he is going to jettison this wretched ideology.

"The mistake of the West was to put the Sauds on the throne of Saudi Arabia and give them control of the world's oil fortune, which they then used to propagate Wahhabi Islam." -Salman Rushdie
  

The Trumpening

The rise of Donald Trump is a phenomenon that has certainly exposed the rancid madness that still lurks in the heart of America. As a historian, I can't help but be deeply impressed at how he and his team managed to game the election and steamroll over scandals that would have sunk any other campaign a hundred times over. He took the trend of political campaigns becoming hollow spectacles and took it to its logical conclusion- running his election bid like reality TV. He pulled in ratings unseen in any election and received wide spread coverage from all media, proving once and for all the old maxim that there is no such thing as bad publicity. Team Trump went all in betting against the intelligence of the average American, and we saw the results of that strategy in November.

 

White supremacists now hold positions of high authority in Trump's cabinet. A president now sits up late at night in the White House watching Fox News religiously, tweeting whatever comes into his mind. The pendulum seems to have swung very far this time and we will just have to wait for it to swing back. Democracy is only as good as the majority of the citizens, and in this last election we saw clearly the consequences of the era of social media. People can now sign up for whatever narrative that suits their particular prejudices, and their version of the internet will happily deliver a constant stream of 'news' that backs up that viewpoint.  

I genuinely thought that the baby boomer generation couldn't do any more damage to America, but I was clearly very wrong. It seems that the most dangerous aspect of all this is that the idea of objective reality has been dealt a death blow after years on the defensive. Alternative facts can be concocted on a as needed basis to support whatever the administration sees as expedient. If the media brings up the truth, they can be called fake news and ignored. That the mainstream media has to a large extent become so exceptionally ridiculous and unprofessional that this tactic could succeed so well is depressing. Watching the supposed opposition consistently behave like childish hacks and rather blatantly try to copy the rights media tactics does not bode well for their return to power. 

On the bright side it seems that as a result of the Trumpining the international order is undergoing a major realignment. Seeing as how we are still basically running off the world order agreed upon at Bretton Woods some 70 years ago, that might not be such a bad thing.  

I can't even begin to fully understand who Trump really is, let alone what he actually believes. He is a Tulpa of extreme potency, and one that has seemingly transcended reality through channeling deep seated paranoia, greed, and a fair amount of xenophobic nationalism that has always been a part of the psyche of any great empire. The fact that a candidate ran openly on build a giant wall on our brown border and 'bomb the shit out of them' as serious foreign policy objectives for a complex globalized world that America ostensibly rules, and won a crushing victory on that platform, speaks volumes. Nobody talks of America being the leader of the free world anymore, and many countries, allies included, have essentially said they think the man is at least partially insane, if not a complete sociopath. Even under Bush, there was a ruthless logic and callousness to what he did, that although horrifying, the world could easily enough understand and accept. The most fascinating thing about Trump, in my opinion, is that nobody can anticipate what he will do. His impulsiveness is already the stuff of legend, and he, more so than any other major leader of this century, is just making it up as he goes along. 

I've never been a fan of the Imperial Presidency, even if it was somewhat justifiable at certain points in our history (Civil War, Great Depression, World War II). I just don't trust the concentration of power, and even less so when it becomes one person. To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure if any single person alive is capable of administering the world that has evolved since globalization made everything so interdependent. In my opinion, Obama was as intelligent and dedicated a president as we have ever had, and even he watched the deficit double because he got extorted into giving billions to predatory banks and passively observed country after country in the MENA region descended into chaotic bloodletting and civil war. Those were not popular moves for Obama to make, but they were probably the best that he had open to him; the alternatives being complete economic collapse on a 1929 scale or endless land wars/nation building in West Asia and North Africa. 

Trump is going to face similar tough choices during his presidency, and although he is clearly capable of outmaneuvering American politicians, I doubt he can do the same when going up against Russia, Iran or North Korea. Iran is close to having a land route all the way to Beirut that will create a Shia crescent from the borders of Pakistan to the Mediterranean. This amazingly bold play by Iran and its Shia brethren is being backed up by a resurgent Russia, which is objectively a lot more effective at dissuading Western intervention than any nuclear program the Iranians could have managed. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are desperate to counter the rise of Shia power in the region. They have and will continue to support movements like Islamic State and al-Nusra (now known as Organization for the Liberation of the Levant or HTS) in order to thwart the Shia apostates that they have hated for well over a hundred generations. This is the greatest challenge to the world order that we have seen in the post-1991 era, and has all the makings of an all out regional war, if not a global one. How much of this Trump fully comprehends is anyone's guess. His speech in Saudi Arabia was rather interesting for two reasons. One, he openly said America no longer cares about spreading Democracy, which although something that the US has probably not really cared about since the 1950's, was still a fundamental part of our foreign and domestic propaganda. He then went on to essentially say that regardless of the horrors that radical Sunni organizations have brought to the Levant, the real issue is the fact that the Shia, led by Iran and protected by Russia, are winning on all the fronts, except perhaps Yemen. It is a moment of historic realignment taking place in the crossroads of three continents and no one is in control of where it will lead. 

Trump is a lot of things, but an idiot isn't one of them. He managed to outsmart the Republican Party, then turn around to stomp the Democrats more ferociously than anyone since Reagan. You can hate the guy, and many do, but you should never fail to appreciate the man's genius for grandstanding and his unrivaled penchant for insult. Still, Machiavellian as the man may be, I truly doubt that he can manage the evolving crisis. The fall of the Islamic State is but a small element in the shifting sands of power in the region, and isn't likely to slow the Shia-Sunni conflict at all. The thing that I can't help but love about Trump is that the man is utterly unpredictable and will say absolutely anything that works its way into that strange mind of his. For all we know he could tweet at 3am tomorrow: We no longer need the oil, so why not let the Muslims kill each other and sell weapons to both sides? #jobs #winning #maga 

Let no one say that we do not live in interesting times.