"Nationalism... is like cheap cheap alcohol. First it makes you drunk, then it makes you blind, then it kills you" -Dan Fried
What a media frenzy has surrounded the events of the past few months in Ukraine. I was recently asked by an elderly Russian man what I thought of this conflict, to which I could only reply that no one is ever all right, and no one is ever all wrong. In the following post I will try and explain the situation as best I can, with a conscious effort to be clear and concise.
As countries go, Ukraine doesn't have much history of being an actual nation or people. It has been slavic for a long time, but before that Scythian, Kazar and other nomadic stock from Central Asia. During the Russian Civil War/Revolution one of my favorite historical characters, Nestor Makhno, managed to make some serious headway against authoritarianism by setting up a free area in which no one was allowed to impose their ideology on anyone else.
Of course, the Red Army eventually overwhelmed them by sheer numbers and ruthlessness, and the area was turned into the Ukrainian SSR. When Stalin decided to experiment with agricultural production in the 1930's millions of Ukrainians died of starvation in what is known as the Holodomor. Things didn't get much better during the next decade with the Nazis rampaging throughout the region slaughtering more millions.
Once it was over though the Soviet shot callers in Moscow decided to make like old school Imperialists, get their pens out, and start drawing borders. The result was the country we now call Ukraine.Starting with the Orange Revolution in 2004 the country has seen a lot of tension between the east and west. The east is relatively industrialized and does a lot of trade with Russia and the CIS countries, whereas the west is more agricultural and exports primarily to Europe. In addition to this division, the west speaks Ukrainian in addition to Russian and has lately seen a lot of nationalism based on this fact.
Now I feel like I can discuss what is currently happening.
The imprisoned Yulia Tymoshenko used her considerable wealth acquired during her time as Prime Minister to pay people to go into the Maiden and oppose the government of her foe, Viktor Yanukovych. The gambit worked, at least for her, and she was released.
What led Tymoshenko to believe that the moment to mobilize forces had come was that Yanukovych had decided to sign an economic deal with Russia that would have done a lot to relieve Ukraines ruinous economy. Unfortunately for him and Ukraine, the EU concluded that doing so meant that they couldn't have similar trade deals with them. Viktor, for all his many faults, made the logical economic choice and chose Russia over an IMF loan that would have led to austerity that would have ruined him politically.
He then decided to use force to drive out the people who were being used against him, which led to people voluntarily joining the protests and things spiralled out of control until he fled the country and an unelected Ukrainian nationalist government was installed with the blessing of the West and a lot of positive coverage in the press.
The first act of this government was to remove Russian as an official language, which is pretty stupid considering its the only language all Ukrainians can speak. Naturally a lot of Russian speaking people in the country took offense to this and with support from Russia have started to fragment the country in retaliation.
Due to some truly impressive corruption the once mighty military of the Ukraine has been reduced to a shadow of its former self and is in no position to oppose anything or anyone militarily. Add this to the fact that a fairly sizable contingent in the new government is openly Fascist and anti-semitic, you have yourself a proper political tinderbox.
Russia has put up with a lot of shit from the West since the end of the Soviet era (the bombing of Serbia, NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq) but having a partially fascist government on its borders was too much.
Consequently, Putin did what most Russians thought was right and started taking action to topple the new government in Kiev. Then you got America once again getting involved in political feuds on the other side of the planet and things get even more volatile.
Where it will go from here is hard to predict. Best case scenario in my opinion is that the country will allow a plebiscite region by region, with those choosing Russia being allowed to peacefully integrate. Another option would be to hold snap elections and hope that some sort of a unity government is formed that is strong enough to weather the economic shitstorm that will be the foreseeable future of the country. If they are lucky Russia will still offer them the deal given to Yanukovych and the EU will stop being dicks about them having concurrent deals with them.
This is of course just all my opinion, and as such, is fundamentally the product of my own bias. I wish the people of the region the best possible outcome and hope that violence can be avoided.









