It's an arbitrary and fluid world that one sees unfolding before us these days. The fate of millions of souls seems to live and die based on the craps shoot of modern geopolitics. It now seems completely possible that the borders Iraq, Syria and the rest of the countries invented in the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, will very soon descend into conventional full scale warfare in order to see those imaginary lines get redrawn. A lot of people said that the war in Syria could spread, especially to equally sectarian and violence prone Iraq, but the events of the past few weeks took everyone by surprise.
According to some sources in the Sunni Triangle, ISIS made a pact with remnants of the Baathist forces and various bellicose Sunni tribes to assist in their blitzkrieg. This was further facilitated by the bribing or coercision of most of the generals in the region to simply leave their posts at this critical juncture, telling their troups to leave their weapons and run for their lives. The end result was that the Sunnis, under the aegis of the black banners of Jihad, are in control of a large and strategically central portion of Iraq, got about half a billion from a bankrobbery and a good deal of quality American made weaponry. They have also tipped the balance of power in Eastern Syria, where a lot of the hardware and money is being redeployed to fight the Shias on that front.
The Kurds seem perfectly happy to have inherited Kirkuk when the Iraqi army dissolved, with the battle hardened Peshmerga being more than capable of fighting off ISIS. They even took the opportunity to sell a million barrels of oil on their own, making their de facto independence looking even more viable. The hilarious side note to that is the oil was sold to Israel, the one country that has nothing to fear from the threats that Baghdad and Washington made about punishing whoever bought this 'illegal' oil. Even more ironic is that Turkey is the one facilitating all this oil moving.
Don't count the Shia out however, despite the utter incompetency of the Maliki government. Qasem Soleimani is a very effective strategist and someone not to be underestimated. He is the commander of the Qods Forces, which is in essence Iran's 15,000 strong version of the US Green Berets. Qasem more or less organized and fostered the development of Hezbullah and has played a very central part in the recent success of the Assad regime against its many opponents. This man is now the one who is rallying the Shia armies to oppose the rise of the new Sunni Caliphate. After being on the shit end of the sectarian stick since the downfall of the Fatimid Caliphate almost a thousand years ago the Shia leaders are definitely willing to wage all out war to prevent any Sunnis, least of all Wahabist extremists, from challenging their recent successes.
Then of course there is the folks in the Arabian peninsula, who are semi-openly supporting the radical Sunni forces in Syria and Iraq. Militarily Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States couldn't do a whole lot, but they do like throwing money at likeminded religious zealots. Of course the US still guarantees these countries safety, so they can talk all the shit they like from the sidelines and place their bets as they choose. The US for its part seems pretty happy to have bailed on the whole shitshow and are willing to let this one play out. After all, it is going to drive up oil prices and make a lot of capitalists a fortune, not to mention arms sales and the fact that all of a sudden no one seems at all concerned about Israel.
Add to all this that there is actually fighting within Europe, which will surely distract NATO from taking any serious action elsewhere, and you have yourselves all the makings of a proper regional throw down. This reckoning has been a long time coming, 1353 years to be precise.
"Be not fainthearted then; and invite not the infidels to peace when ye have the upper hand: for God is with you, and will not defraud you of the recompense of your works..." -Quran










